saketkapur
06-09 06:35 PM
http://imminfo.com/Newsletter/2009-AILA/Likely_visa_bulletin_cutoff_date_movement.html
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
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willigetagc
07-26 03:15 PM
F5 ? I dont see that on my keyboard. I remember it had one before, but it must have fallen off after the recent F5 marathon. :)
gk_2000
08-02 01:26 PM
well this is your time. with eb3 row 2009, you probably are in wait for at least 5 years. Anyway the point is, no country would be stupid enough to stop great talent from coming through to satisfy it's diversity policy. When you are talking about 0.14 million immigrants for a nation of 300 million, that's less than 0.05%. So please take your diversity argument with you and don't let the door hit you on your way out. For this miniscule percentage, the US will lose out on thousands of the best Indian and Chinese engineering/science talent. US's loss, India/China's gain. If this is not an example of an extremely stupid strategic policy then I'm not sure what is.
Oh and by the way, may not be me or you waiting for Indian/Chinese GC's but could be your kid and mine. Let's have this talk again in a decade or two given GDP growth,debt and deficits of US and GDP growths/deficits/market size of India/China.
tanu, do you realize that the above is nothing but a rant? isantem is not responsible for making the rules so why beat him up? What he said is nothing but the facts to the best of his knowledge
Yes, go ahead, give me reds. From your behavior I feel you may be one of those immature types who will red anyone who disagrees..
Oh and by the way, may not be me or you waiting for Indian/Chinese GC's but could be your kid and mine. Let's have this talk again in a decade or two given GDP growth,debt and deficits of US and GDP growths/deficits/market size of India/China.
tanu, do you realize that the above is nothing but a rant? isantem is not responsible for making the rules so why beat him up? What he said is nothing but the facts to the best of his knowledge
Yes, go ahead, give me reds. From your behavior I feel you may be one of those immature types who will red anyone who disagrees..
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harsh
12-12 04:41 PM
EB-3 india is not yet completely out of 245(i) mess. If you remember the last month's priority date was 22Apr 2001. Now in Jan priority date is 08May2001. 245(i) ended on Apr30th 2001. So this month's progress still includes 8 days of 245(i). I would imagine that more cases were filed from Apr 22 - Apr 30 as this was the last week. So its still a long way to go before EB3 is completely out of 245(i).
more...
ssharma
07-04 01:24 PM
Dear IV folks,
After a long long 7 years I finally received my Green Card y'day.
If not anything... this process does forcefully teach patience, hope, anger mgnt & gives a new understanding of terms UNFAIR & UNJUST.
My app did experience all the delays ..Backlog centers, company change, date portability, NameCheck..
For expediting Namecheck & Serv. ticket I had written/fax/calls to almost everyone in govt. White House, First Lady, DHS Dir, TSC Dir, USCIS Dir, Senator...
Not sure if anything worked, but finally 180 day rule might have helped.
Finally ...it's a great sense of relief.
I was desperately needing it now as I wanted MBA loan & change of field etc.
Special thanks to pappu,logiclife,berkeleybee,Googler ...you guys are the lighthouses in this long tempest.
It's amazing that someone whom you don't know & have never met, inspire & guide so many others.
All the very best to everyone & I hope everyone gets their GC in a FAIR order - FIFO -.
God bless you all.
-------------------------
IND
140 - Dec 2001 (EB3) BEC
140 - Aug 2005 (EB2) PERM
485 - May 2007
After a long long 7 years I finally received my Green Card y'day.
If not anything... this process does forcefully teach patience, hope, anger mgnt & gives a new understanding of terms UNFAIR & UNJUST.
My app did experience all the delays ..Backlog centers, company change, date portability, NameCheck..
For expediting Namecheck & Serv. ticket I had written/fax/calls to almost everyone in govt. White House, First Lady, DHS Dir, TSC Dir, USCIS Dir, Senator...
Not sure if anything worked, but finally 180 day rule might have helped.
Finally ...it's a great sense of relief.
I was desperately needing it now as I wanted MBA loan & change of field etc.
Special thanks to pappu,logiclife,berkeleybee,Googler ...you guys are the lighthouses in this long tempest.
It's amazing that someone whom you don't know & have never met, inspire & guide so many others.
All the very best to everyone & I hope everyone gets their GC in a FAIR order - FIFO -.
God bless you all.
-------------------------
IND
140 - Dec 2001 (EB3) BEC
140 - Aug 2005 (EB2) PERM
485 - May 2007
greencard_fever
08-05 10:01 PM
see my signiture...
more...
singhsa3
01-03 09:42 PM
I wish....;)
Your friend == singhsa3 ??? - Just kidding
Your friend == singhsa3 ??? - Just kidding
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nag2007
10-11 05:07 PM
---
Rest assured we are working to remove the root cause of visa retrogression.
On a separate note, how can you start a thread demanding something from "IV" when you and few other people on this thread, stuck in backlog after 17th August, say that they don't want to volunteer for IV. Please explain why do you expect us to do all the work for you? If you aren't serious then please stop lamenting about your plight.
Join your state chapter and get involved, your active participation is what will strengthen IV and enable us to fix this issue.
I have sent a mail to the moderator of my region group to include my name and will particpate actively.
Rest assured we are working to remove the root cause of visa retrogression.
On a separate note, how can you start a thread demanding something from "IV" when you and few other people on this thread, stuck in backlog after 17th August, say that they don't want to volunteer for IV. Please explain why do you expect us to do all the work for you? If you aren't serious then please stop lamenting about your plight.
Join your state chapter and get involved, your active participation is what will strengthen IV and enable us to fix this issue.
I have sent a mail to the moderator of my region group to include my name and will particpate actively.
more...
GCwaitforever
02-21 04:09 PM
Mercies,
We appreciate ur apprehension, but please do not sow unnecessary seeds of doubt. As it is, making most legal immigrants take part in this struggle, is like milking a male buffalo.
:D This is so true of Desis. Atleast the illegals have the guts to openly conduct a rally.
We appreciate ur apprehension, but please do not sow unnecessary seeds of doubt. As it is, making most legal immigrants take part in this struggle, is like milking a male buffalo.
:D This is so true of Desis. Atleast the illegals have the guts to openly conduct a rally.
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user1205
01-15 01:18 PM
I did the same and got 2 more people to send them and I'm hoping for 2 more. We're a small office but any letter counts :)
I have bought stamps/envelops and printed # of letters by myself and going desk to desk and urging Desi's to sign and send letters.
I have bought stamps/envelops and printed # of letters by myself and going desk to desk and urging Desi's to sign and send letters.
more...
desi485
01-04 03:46 PM
Poor Guy
;) what do you expect if one has to keep two wives happy? :D
;) what do you expect if one has to keep two wives happy? :D
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waitingnwaiting
11-12 09:45 AM
That means Eb-2 I screwed....for several months.
God bless all our Eb2-I guys.
They are very much better off now. Their dates will be all current in one-two years. We in EB3 have to wait 20 years. So couple of month wait is nothing.
God bless all our Eb2-I guys.
They are very much better off now. Their dates will be all current in one-two years. We in EB3 have to wait 20 years. So couple of month wait is nothing.
more...
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eb3retro
10-29 09:26 AM
Believe it or not, I was about to open a thread like this. And here is the worst part, my AP has been approved 10 days ago, and so far neither the online status changed to approved nor i have received the approval copy. 2 ways I found out my AP was approved was through my local congressman and I took an infopass appointment. In the info pass appointment when I asked what is causing the delay in sending an approved AP, the officer says, if you did not get the approval notice in 45 days, call us back. This after waiting for more than 90days from the date of application. So, its not there until you have it in hand. Merely getting an approval these days is not enough, since they take anywhere upto 45 days to send the approval to you.
Attrocity to the core and the height of irresponsibility.
Attrocity to the core and the height of irresponsibility.
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arsh007
11-21 01:01 PM
Taking a plunge now on EAD is like drowning yourself. prices have not yet come down and will come down by 15-20 % over 5 years. there is talk about recession , job losses and more foreclosures. if you dont need the space ...DONT BUY. most of us dont need more space unless we have 2-3 grown kids who need their own rooms. renting is not same as throwing away money as you get a place to live. how does buying a home give you security ..it is more of a hassle if you are on EAD or H-1 and you need mobility after a job is lost. my friend who has good worldly experience rightly said ..buying a house now is like worrying about one more thing in life.
I agree with some of your points. However each one of us is in a different situation and have different ways of dealing with situations. If you are happy with your current situation including renting, that's well and good for you.
However taking a generalized view of the entire US housing industry and expecting 15-20% drop in 5 years is highly speculative. Such speculation maybe true for some housing markets like California, Arizona, Florida and the East Coast. However its not true for the mid-west where prices have been more stable. Besides job loss can occur even if one is on a GC. Nothing is permanent in this country. You always need mobility and that's the reason you have several professionals living in one city and working in another. Its not the end of the world loosing your job one city. There are always alternatives like the one just described.
I strongly advocate looking at your current situation before thinking about buying a home. The lifestyle and quality of life experienced by living in a home is unmatched even by living in the most luxurious apartment. The security from owning a home comes from knowing your have your own place and mortgages payments you make help you in increasing your equity in the home which can be utilized in the long-run to start a business or investment in other things.
I agree with some of your points. However each one of us is in a different situation and have different ways of dealing with situations. If you are happy with your current situation including renting, that's well and good for you.
However taking a generalized view of the entire US housing industry and expecting 15-20% drop in 5 years is highly speculative. Such speculation maybe true for some housing markets like California, Arizona, Florida and the East Coast. However its not true for the mid-west where prices have been more stable. Besides job loss can occur even if one is on a GC. Nothing is permanent in this country. You always need mobility and that's the reason you have several professionals living in one city and working in another. Its not the end of the world loosing your job one city. There are always alternatives like the one just described.
I strongly advocate looking at your current situation before thinking about buying a home. The lifestyle and quality of life experienced by living in a home is unmatched even by living in the most luxurious apartment. The security from owning a home comes from knowing your have your own place and mortgages payments you make help you in increasing your equity in the home which can be utilized in the long-run to start a business or investment in other things.
more...
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madhu345
05-22 04:28 PM
May be its a message for every one on ther other side of the border to sneak in :)
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Guig0
02-03 10:42 AM
You voted for me?? :beam:
you�re the best! :P
did i mentioned you have the best footer? ;)
thanks man, you made one kirupian happy =)
you�re the best! :P
did i mentioned you have the best footer? ;)
thanks man, you made one kirupian happy =)
more...
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saimrathi
07-10 08:42 AM
What if we used so much of our time and energy in finding jobs in India/China and moving back, instead of going after media/govt? :confused:
Some of us have spent $35-40 on sending flowers, if we gave a internet job board that kind of money to send our resumes to prospective employers and headhunters in India, we may have a chance in finding a job in the emerging economy of India/China.. that will be THE biggest impact on US Govt... To add to my opinion, I would like to direct your attention to Microsoft... They didn't waste their resources on fighting the media, govt.. they just moved to Canada.. And believe me, there will be more such instances...
Some of us have spent $35-40 on sending flowers, if we gave a internet job board that kind of money to send our resumes to prospective employers and headhunters in India, we may have a chance in finding a job in the emerging economy of India/China.. that will be THE biggest impact on US Govt... To add to my opinion, I would like to direct your attention to Microsoft... They didn't waste their resources on fighting the media, govt.. they just moved to Canada.. And believe me, there will be more such instances...
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viv24
05-25 03:01 PM
Hi guys, here is my case
came to us 8.2003 on f1, completed studies in 02.2006, opt from 02.2006 to 02.2007.
filed h1b petition 07.2006, h1b approved for company a,02.2007 changed to company b 06.2007 approved 01.2008.
company b filed for i140 i485, got EAD, AP and FP done in 2007-2008. i140 not yet approved
Gone to montreal in march 2008 for visa stamping, got 221g, waited for 60 days no positive reply from consulate.
Came back to US on AP, since i had job, could not lose. My questions
1) if i get my h1b visa get approved and stamped hopefully, can i go back to h1b status without losing my EAD, i140 applications. i have about 4.5 years left on h1b. other reason for me wanting h1b is getting married in india.
2) can i file another i140 for the same i485 for back up.
3) I have entered US on AP, do i have use EAD or just work on h1b.
do share your experiences and opinions, I am also working with attorney on these issues, your input and guidance will help to plan for all events.
.
came to us 8.2003 on f1, completed studies in 02.2006, opt from 02.2006 to 02.2007.
filed h1b petition 07.2006, h1b approved for company a,02.2007 changed to company b 06.2007 approved 01.2008.
company b filed for i140 i485, got EAD, AP and FP done in 2007-2008. i140 not yet approved
Gone to montreal in march 2008 for visa stamping, got 221g, waited for 60 days no positive reply from consulate.
Came back to US on AP, since i had job, could not lose. My questions
1) if i get my h1b visa get approved and stamped hopefully, can i go back to h1b status without losing my EAD, i140 applications. i have about 4.5 years left on h1b. other reason for me wanting h1b is getting married in india.
2) can i file another i140 for the same i485 for back up.
3) I have entered US on AP, do i have use EAD or just work on h1b.
do share your experiences and opinions, I am also working with attorney on these issues, your input and guidance will help to plan for all events.
.
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GoneSouth
07-10 09:26 AM
FYI, Jon Stewart had a piece on Lou Dobbs last night on the Daily Show (although I think this was a re run of a show last week).
In Stewart's clip, Dobbs claimed that there were 7000 cases of leprosy in the US in the last 3 years, mostly due to illegal immigrants. Stewart brought it to the audience's attention that this was completely false. In fact, there have been 7000 cases of leprousy in the US in the last *30* years, and no statistics have been kept on whether these were immigrants or us citizens.
Stewart also had a bit where he said "Buchananan ... hmmm, that's Irish, isn't it?" - a reference to the fact that Pat Buchanan, an outspoken xenophobe, is himself the descendent of formerly reviled immigrant group.
Go Jon !
In Stewart's clip, Dobbs claimed that there were 7000 cases of leprosy in the US in the last 3 years, mostly due to illegal immigrants. Stewart brought it to the audience's attention that this was completely false. In fact, there have been 7000 cases of leprousy in the US in the last *30* years, and no statistics have been kept on whether these were immigrants or us citizens.
Stewart also had a bit where he said "Buchananan ... hmmm, that's Irish, isn't it?" - a reference to the fact that Pat Buchanan, an outspoken xenophobe, is himself the descendent of formerly reviled immigrant group.
Go Jon !
maine_gc
08-07 03:38 PM
My PD is Nov 2004.
I do not have any dreams of my 485 being cleared this month as my I140 is pending at TSC since April 2007. Just last week we got an RFE and the attroney is working on the response.
I do not have any dreams of my 485 being cleared this month as my I140 is pending at TSC since April 2007. Just last week we got an RFE and the attroney is working on the response.
breddy2000
03-26 03:30 PM
I sent an email about 2 weeks back to sanjay and I still have not recd any documents that I need to schedule my appointments and what I need to talk about. Please send me an email or PM to give me the guidance.
Thanks from Michigan
I received the Mail from Sanjay. I forwared you the mail.
I'm also from Michigan.
Thanks from Michigan
I received the Mail from Sanjay. I forwared you the mail.
I'm also from Michigan.
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