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  • dilber
    07-16 03:37 AM
    Some one has done a very good analysis in this thread.

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showthread.php?t=4285&page=107

    Here is copy and paste of the post by gcobessesed

    ----------------------------------

    Reading this post and the Ron Gotcher numbers, I see some answers for the pending India backlog number question and a silver lining for EB2.

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by drirshad View Post
    (Quoting Ron Gotcher) The CIS backlog does not appear to be as serious as I had been told previously. Rather than 600,000 pending employment based AOS cases, it is likely less than 400,000 pending cases.
    Quote:
    Indian applicants make up approximately 40 to 45 per cent of the entire employment based quota backlog
    Therefore, about 160,000 applications are pending for India!

    As we have seen before, EB3 and EB2 are almost the same proportion for India with EB3 being slightly higher. So, about 85,000 for EB3 and 75,000 for EB2 are pending.


    I am very confident that EB-2 india will become current in about 14-18 months.

    I disagree with the underlined part before the visa numbers started to move fast in June and The July bulletin EB2 was at Jan 03 and then at Apr 04 but EB3 was at May 01 and then at June 2003 so there will me more like 60~65 percent of Eb3 filers so for calculating EB2 movements we should take this into account as well. So if USCIS does end up giving all the spillover numbers to the retro cuntries in EB2 then I have to agree with Vdlrao's analysis that there will not be much retro in India in the next FY and by the end of next FY it might even become close to current.





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  • lazycis
    12-13 04:35 PM
    Folks,
    Since this can potentially be a great win for us, why don't we take the advice of a top constitutional attorney. I am sure the attorney will be able to tell us if we have a case. As for the cost, I think an hours time of any attorney will be peanuts compared to what we can afford.

    What say LogicLife?

    Thanks.

    It will be a waste of money. The US does not have to allow any immigration if it chooses so. Do you realize that getting a GC is not a right, but a privelege? It's a matter of grace and no court has jurisdiction to review if government says "no".





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  • alisa
    02-13 01:44 PM
    Are you suggesting that IV's efforts would increase the wait times for ROW?
    What incentive does ROW have to work with IV then?

    It has been repeated 'Ad Nauseam' times. IVs agenda includes all of these -

    1) Increasing GC numbers
    2) Recapturing numbers and instituting permanent Rollover mechanisms
    3) Eliminate country quotas.

    IV understands that removing just the country quota will impact ROW badly if visa numbers are not increased in tandem. Hence you always see the three points being proposed together. These 3 have to go together. A compromise between ROW and oversubscribed countries.

    But some ROW members keep trying to split the movement by opposing removal of country quotas ( which is point 2 in IV agenda) at every possible opportunity. Real way to build a coalition is through compromise. And in a compromise you can't get all you want. Don't expect the majority to heed all your demands.

    Be a little appreciative of the sufferings of others. If you think a little extra time you need to spend in the queue is turning you so angry, what goes in the mind of a person who has to spend twice or thrice as much time in the same queue, for no fault of his/hers?

    Don't BS on 'diversity'. There is already a 'diversity visa' which Indians & Chinese cannot use. Want to come under diversity? Apply in the lottery. Be a little humane and think about the suffering of others. May be you'll see the light. You are not going to win many friends by alleging "an agenda by some country". It's preposturous, laughable and Dobbsian ( like Lou Dobbs alleged "invasion by Mexicans")





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  • sledge_hammer
    01-14 02:29 PM
    They are implying that those who are currently working for body shops are to find an employer that would offer their definition of employer-employee relationship. But you are still with the body shop, then your extnesion will be denied!

    Q: What happens if I am filing a petition requesting a �Continuation of previously approved employment without change� or �Change in previously approved employment� and an extension of stay for the beneficiary in H-1B classification, but I did not maintain a valid employer-employee relationship with the beneficiary during the validity of the previous petition?

    A: Your extension petition will be denied if USCIS determines that you did not maintain a valid employer-employee relationship with the beneficiary throughout the validity period of the previous petition. The only exception is if there is a compelling reason to approve the new petition (e.g. you are able to demonstrate that you did not meet all of the terms and conditions through no fault of your own). Such exceptions would be limited and made on a case-by-case basis.

    Q: What if I am filing a petition requesting a �Change of Employer� and an extension of stay for the beneficiary�s H-1B classification? Would my petition be adjudicated under the section of the memorandum that deals with extension petitions?

    A: No. The section of the memorandum that covers extension petitions applies solely to petitions filed by the same employer to extend H-1B status without a material change in the original terms of employment. All other petitions will be adjudicated in accordance with the section of the memorandum that covers initial petitions.
    USCIS - Questions & Answers: USCIS Issues Guidance Memorandum on Establishing the "Employee-Employer Relationship" in H-1B Petitions (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=3d015869c9326210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=6abe6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190a RCRD)



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  • sayantan76
    12-17 04:58 PM
    Is the new Obama Administration going to consider "Instant GC" if we buy a House ? I'm thinking about the huge inventory of vacant house and how many could be bought up by GC holders... Its probably a fraction - Isn't it ?
    At the risk of getting red dots - few critical roadblocks come to mind:

    1. The crisis right now is way beyond housing - its about basic issues like employment, consumption and credit (buying vacant houses does not raise employment) - fundamental issues would need to be addressed first before Govt can do something that even remotely looks and smells like (howsoever untrue it might be) giving preference to immigrants over Americans. Also what happens when renters enmasse vacate apartments and buy houses - it drives rental companies into bankruptcy - so catch 22 - no?

    2. Credit criteria have been made very stringent by banks and lending institutions - so a lot of people may not qualify.......many people are in risk of losing jobs - they may not want to convert their liquid savings into a 20% illiquid (houses dont sell overnight and you cannot convert your investment to cash easily) downpayment towards houses....so not sure how many will actually want to spend that money now.....what if you get ur GC by buying a house and subsequently lose job and cant find alternative job - house cant feed you and the family nor can it pay mortgages.....

    3. Any legislation that goes against principles of natural justice and creates an elite class based on financial criteria is difficult to pass through legislature.....





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  • BharatPremi
    12-14 03:19 PM
    Yep.

    O.k here I am trying to reach the conclusion for my own proper understanding: Whether it is "Discriminative" OR "Restrictive" OR both OR none

    Scenario Example:
    -----------------
    Year 2009:

    ROW EB: Only Britain nationals apply say 30000 people - No other ROW
    national apply
    ROW EB current
    NO EB Backlog for ROW

    What will happen to the files of (30000 -9800) these britain nationals?



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  • GCwaitforever
    02-14 03:22 PM
    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/showpost.php?p=223326&postcount=124

    See the Judge ruling from Lazycis post regarding namecheck. USCIS has an obligation to use the numbers to the fullest extent.





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  • logiclife
    01-24 12:29 PM
    hehehe, i dont think the sentence is too light - the US Prison system has so many jokes about the kinds of characters inside them...Hope this mandalapa guy gets a 'great' roomie - Once he comes out he would think twice about 'screwing' genuine GC applicants then - know what i mean??!!!!

    He is going to India after prison. The paper says he is being deported after he gets out of prison.

    So he wont be touching anyone's GC application ever.



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  • immi_seeker
    09-15 02:39 PM
    Here are my Estimate of pending EB2 India case for give years

    <=2004 2000
    2005 10000
    2006 13000
    2007(july) 5000
    ==============
    Total 30000
    ==============

    This number is very close to Ron Gocthers number prediction a few months back (minus sept approvals).

    Collaboration on visa quota data/analysis - Page 6 - Immigration Information Discussion Forum (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions/8419-collaboration-on-visa-quota-data-analysis-6.html)

    Pending as of 15 July 2009 145000
    EB2 50000
    EB3 94000
    EB2India (2.4/3.5 EB2) 35714

    We can use the LCA number and come close these numbers as well

    2005
    EB2 India LCA for 2005 = RIR (3000) + PERM (60% of 7290) ~ 7400
    Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 5900
    1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 13000 I-485 applicantions
    Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 5% cross-charageability we get => pending 10000 pending I-485 application for 2005

    2006
    India PERM applications = 18000
    EB2 India PERM applications (60%) = 10800
    Assuming 20% abandon applicant we get = 8640
    1.2 dependent per applicant give ~ 19000 I-485 applicantions
    Assuming 10% approved in 2008 and 10% rejected/abandon I-485 and 10% cross-charageability we get => pending 13000 pending I-485 application for 2006

    So if we see spillover of more than 30K the date will move beyond July 2007.


    Considering the slow economy that spill over is reasonable.





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  • GCVictim
    08-24 11:48 PM
    Dear Immigration Attorney,

    Can I out of US with old AP and returned with new (renewed) AP?



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  • snelakan
    06-27 10:00 PM
    cause state department made the dates current....USCIS can only request visa's from state department.....since they were not asking for a lot of visas, which were going to go waste, state department made everything current...





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  • karthkc
    07-23 01:01 PM
    I posted this message on another thread and got slammed - :confused:. All the discussions here are just speculations.. no one really has access to real numbers.. so take it easy this time :p

    As we do not have any real numbers my predictions are based on EB2 numbers from (assuming the data to be a true random sample)

    Here are number of EB2-I I485 pending cases by year

    2007-100
    2006-150
    2005-125
    2004-200
    2003-50 (250 have been approved)

    USCIS has approved about 450 EB2-I cases last year. A conservative estimate of approval rate going forward would be 30 cases per month. Based on this the movement..
    2003 cases will be approved by Sep '08
    2004 cases by Apr '09
    2005 cases by Sep '09
    2006 cases by Dec '09

    Good Luck !!!

    This does not make sense at all.. cases are a miniscule portion of actual USCIS approvals and a rate of 30 cases per month would mean most of USCIS personnel are on vacation for summer :)



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  • Subst_labor
    03-17 10:32 PM
    Subst_labor, you became an annonymous member today only to post this question. I am sure you must be a regular member of IV but created a new profile just for this question.

    Why don't you tell us how much you bought your labor for? Show us a proof that you have not bought it.

    I think I made a mistake of answering your post and apologize for that to all members. I also urge people not to answer anyone with substitute labor on this forum.

    such people cut in line in front of us and don't even bother paying money to IV. Why should we give them free advice. If they can spend money buying labor for 20K they can spend hundred dollars and consult a lawyer and ask their question. It is with such mentaility they are brought up with in their country- Currption and getting things done with money. But never paying anyone for a just cause. In my country people contribute only when they fear god in temples, for medical treatment or to astrologers!!


    I also urge moderators to close such threads on this forum whenever someone is diagnosed with a substitute labor cancer. Yes it is a cancer that is worsening retrogression further.

    At least on this forum we can have the resolve to fight such people who are hurting most of us.

    Now if someone argues with me on this post, then it will mean that either that person has himself bought a substitute labor or is looking for one. So don't even bother because a lot of members after reading this post will come hard on people who are ok with substitute labor on this forum.

    Mr. Janak,
    Do you understand English? First of all, i had mentioned, i am BEING offered, meaning i havent gone for the labor yet and even if i do there will be no buying or selling involved.
    Second of all, i am sick and tired of stereotype Indians like you, who ASSUME everything without knowing anything and come out with your own theories from the bizzarro world [i know, pathetic loosers like to vent at any and every opportunities they get. Spare me your crap, if u dont know anything and cant help, then just stay quiet.]





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  • sachug22
    09-15 04:45 PM
    Hello Sachug 22,

    Where are you getting numbers for EB2 India for 2005 to be 10000, when total labor approved for 2005 were just 6133 (for all countries).

    Thanks,
    WeldonSprings.

    2004 2000
    2005 10000
    2006 13000
    2007(july) 5000

    http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/903759-post52.html

    There where 7290 India PERM application approved for applications filed in 2005 (of this 60% where EB2 - assumption). And assuming 3000 RIR EB2 India LCA applications (pre march 2005) there are 7400 EB2 India LCA with PD of 2005. Rest of the calculation is in my post.



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  • eb3_nepa
    10-23 02:08 PM
    Thanks eb3India.

    How does the current company obtain a pre-approved labor? Does it buy the pre-app labour? Or is it SOLELY because someone in the company left (whose labor was approved)?

    I was reading a lot about the controversy about why it should be stopped etc so i was wondering if someone had any documentation on why it was started in the first place and how it works

    Thanks





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  • qvadis
    02-13 06:44 PM
    Before AC21, the spill over goes vertically.
    After AC21, the spill over should go horizontally.

    Now ROW experts, post your comment for this hypothitical example ..

    Lets assume there are 100 unused visas in EB2 catagory in a calender quarter. Worldwide EB damand is more than 140,000. Now, how will you assisn those numbers if it is before AC21 period and if it is after AC21 period.

    If you say in both cases it goes to EB3-ROW, then we are not stupid to listien.

    (a) INA 202(a)(3) states that the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) [...] exceeds the number of qualified immigrants [...] (2) shall not apply [...]. In your case, there are no excess visas available for FB immigrants.

    (b) INA 202(e) Special Rules for Countries at Ceiling. requires that additional visas are distributed according to the world-wide distribution across FB and EB categories. Of the 100 unused visas 77 would have to be alloted to FB, and only 22 to EB categories. Assuming a 1/3 distribution in EB categories EB1, EB2, EB3, 7 would go to EB2.

    If USCIS cannot follow this rule, those 100 visas would be unused for that fiscal year.

    With AC21, the 100 can be assigned to oversubscribed countries, if Visas are available, ie. demand in all categories is less than supply. With EB3-ROW retrogressed, that is not the case.

    Just the way I see it....



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  • ssharma
    07-06 01:17 AM
    Is there certain minimum numbers of days one has to stay with the sponsoring company after getting the Green Card.
    In my case I have been working with my current employer since Sept-2001 (almost 7 years).
    Green card labor started in Dec-2001 and I-485 was filed in May and approved June, 2008.

    I was in the middle of using AC21 just before my GC got approved, hence this urgency.





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  • kshitijnt
    03-29 06:06 PM
    I just look at this pool and surprised that Advani is running so hot in the pool. I am from Gujarat and I can tell that advani will be worst as PM. when given a Chance in BJP ministry he had worst performance as Home minister. I think he had not managed anything in his life and after his rise in BJP, BJP lost his charm.

    I think some one with good management skill like MMohan, MODI, Chidambaram etc are lot more sutiabel than Advani.

    Advani should retire from politics before even Bajpai. Even lalu will be better as PM than Advani looking to how advani managed Home Ministry and how Lalu Managed Railway.

    Thank you for your personal opinion. India was doing well when Vajpayee was PM. He is not some management honcho. It is a vision of the person that is more important. Manmohan is a learned man and has provided country with real good service but real power rests with Sonia and her son Rahul.

    Hence. Its a question of ideology in the long run and given my background, BJP govt suits me better than Congress. So I prefer Advani over Sonia.





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  • katewill
    11-09 09:20 AM
    oh well, this is how i feel. "i should have studied more and started with EB2"
    rules are rules, fair or unfair.
    what have you done other than just waiting? ( i've been waiting too)
    while others changed jobs and moved on to EB2 and got GC in 6 month.
    maybe you can also search companies with sub labor.
    you could have done alot of things if you needed to, but you didn't. (i didn't either)





    Dalai Lama
    01-24 01:14 PM
    He must had already saved lot of money in India, he will live like a king after 20 months.
    He should get 20 years of prison.

    Dalai lama from Tibbet





    pointlesswait
    09-14 04:45 PM
    This a very optimistic prediction....

    i think .. most with PD of jan 2005 and earlier will get their GC ..thus in OCT VB the dates will pull back a bit..maybe mid 2004...so first qtr will be bad news for anyone with a PD after jan 2005,...but the 2nd and 3rd qtr.. the dates will be definitely be in mid 2006.

    my 1/4 cent



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