saketkapur
06-09 06:35 PM
http://imminfo.com/Newsletter/2009-AILA/Likely_visa_bulletin_cutoff_date_movement.html
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
wallpaper Pink Panther 2 Pic
jethro11
04-20 02:41 PM
Solaris27,
Thanks for your reply, there are a lot of conflicting reports from different sources so I wanted to be sure. Have you traveled in the past month or know of anybody who has come back without a transit visa through Frankfurt? The new Schengen visa rules are causing a lot of confusion. Thanks!
Thanks for your reply, there are a lot of conflicting reports from different sources so I wanted to be sure. Have you traveled in the past month or know of anybody who has come back without a transit visa through Frankfurt? The new Schengen visa rules are causing a lot of confusion. Thanks!
desi3933
12-22 12:54 PM
I do have very different experience. I never had any issues with the indian consulate. couple of months back I have sent the papers for my daughter's PIO card. With in two weeks I got the PIO in mail.
My experience has been very good, too.
I had family emergency and needed visa to travel to India. Entry Visa (they don't issue Tourist Visa to people of Indian origin) was issued in 1 hour. The staff was very helpful.
________________
Not a legal advice.
My experience has been very good, too.
I had family emergency and needed visa to travel to India. Entry Visa (they don't issue Tourist Visa to people of Indian origin) was issued in 1 hour. The staff was very helpful.
________________
Not a legal advice.
2011 Inspector Clouseau became
GCapplicant
07-07 06:17 PM
Its now airing channel 4
more...
eilsoe
02-07 08:50 AM
****
I was ahead 9 votes before, how did you rack up 6 so fast???
I was ahead 9 votes before, how did you rack up 6 so fast???
NKR
02-13 10:26 AM
I was on 5th year
Sorry Shana,
I am a bit confused now, are you in your 5th year extension?.. In which year did your H1 expire?.
Thanks,
Sorry Shana,
I am a bit confused now, are you in your 5th year extension?.. In which year did your H1 expire?.
Thanks,
more...
pilid
03-16 02:49 PM
Not to be pessimist but I tend to agree with learning01 that Nothing is going to happen. This is election year and it will be difficult to get such sweeping and comprehensive legislation passed. Having said all this, I will continue to support IV as I think these efforts will eventually pay off.
learning01, I laud your efforts. However, I am not sure what incentive any employer has to really help with this cause. Sure worth trying though.
Newt said Nothing is going to happen on this Specter or any other immigration bills in Senate. The conference with House will not agree to anything.
I also sincerely believe that Nothing is going to happen I say, these senators are doing CYAs; they will bitch it to media, their constituents, hey look, we did attempt these immigration reforms.
I am talking from my long experience and wisdom and take it from me. The only force that can improve the pitiable conditions of Indian and Chinese due to retrogression and lack of visa numbers is the big corporate employers . Each one whose LC is approved, whose I-140 is approved, who is waiting to file for adjustment of status AND who are indispensable to the employer / work at this stage should write to the HR/ Immigration/ Attorney.
I am in such a position. I am a technical lead in my IT department. PD Nov 2001. I write about these issues and the difficulties once in a month my team manager, or project manager or Immigration department.
learning01, I laud your efforts. However, I am not sure what incentive any employer has to really help with this cause. Sure worth trying though.
Newt said Nothing is going to happen on this Specter or any other immigration bills in Senate. The conference with House will not agree to anything.
I also sincerely believe that Nothing is going to happen I say, these senators are doing CYAs; they will bitch it to media, their constituents, hey look, we did attempt these immigration reforms.
I am talking from my long experience and wisdom and take it from me. The only force that can improve the pitiable conditions of Indian and Chinese due to retrogression and lack of visa numbers is the big corporate employers . Each one whose LC is approved, whose I-140 is approved, who is waiting to file for adjustment of status AND who are indispensable to the employer / work at this stage should write to the HR/ Immigration/ Attorney.
I am in such a position. I am a technical lead in my IT department. PD Nov 2001. I write about these issues and the difficulties once in a month my team manager, or project manager or Immigration department.
2010 seduces inspector clouseau
pointlesswait
07-22 05:23 PM
to port..the pD..u need to send in the earlier approved 140 with the new 140 that you file..
i have read of instances when the PD was successful and few instances when it was not...
so i am not sure..what the criteria is..
but if you are in the same industry..PD porting should not be an issue..
....
i have a feeling sooner or later PD porting may be banned by USCIS..;-)
I am exploring the possibility of making the Inter-filing. I have been speaking to some well known, street-smart attornies. One mentioned that the "Priority Date" is decided only upon approval of I-140. He also wrote that for keeping the earlier priority date, the 2nd I-140 application (new) should be filed along with copy of the approval of the first I-140.
In your case, it appears that you did not send the approval copy of the first I-140 along with 2nd I-140 application.
Probably, you can send the approval of EB-2 I-140 with earlier PD, along with I-485 receipt copy to the Service Center and ask them to allot the earlier PD. Please take the assistance of attorney for doing this.
i have read of instances when the PD was successful and few instances when it was not...
so i am not sure..what the criteria is..
but if you are in the same industry..PD porting should not be an issue..
....
i have a feeling sooner or later PD porting may be banned by USCIS..;-)
I am exploring the possibility of making the Inter-filing. I have been speaking to some well known, street-smart attornies. One mentioned that the "Priority Date" is decided only upon approval of I-140. He also wrote that for keeping the earlier priority date, the 2nd I-140 application (new) should be filed along with copy of the approval of the first I-140.
In your case, it appears that you did not send the approval copy of the first I-140 along with 2nd I-140 application.
Probably, you can send the approval of EB-2 I-140 with earlier PD, along with I-485 receipt copy to the Service Center and ask them to allot the earlier PD. Please take the assistance of attorney for doing this.
more...
RajForGC
06-07 12:10 PM
EB3 140 is already approved on Jan 2006, we re-applied 140 again on EB2 but got the Priority date of EB3 for EB2 of Sep 2005. But I Think priority date is only for Labor not 140, so my 140 for EB2 is still May 21 isn't it?
hair Smart car for Pink Panther
Anna35
09-19 03:20 PM
You know that's my point. do you really think we can't do nothing more?.....
we are highly sklilled smart and great immigrants creating the new America of the 21st century we can't just say, thats it lets wait.....
This country is about money, and we have the tremendous advantage that elections are coming, lets see the big picture.. why dont we jump to the next level from street protesters to work with one of the candidates or 2 or 3 , if they see money they will push our cause. Lets work on that now...
So those guys who attended the hearings or met with senators. what was the result? what did they accomplished? did they get the opportunity to participate with the senator or law maker in an action plan? or we just wasted that opportunity asking for autographs? please those guys post your comments.
I'm no negative just wondering how to measure the success of the rally?
we are highly sklilled smart and great immigrants creating the new America of the 21st century we can't just say, thats it lets wait.....
This country is about money, and we have the tremendous advantage that elections are coming, lets see the big picture.. why dont we jump to the next level from street protesters to work with one of the candidates or 2 or 3 , if they see money they will push our cause. Lets work on that now...
So those guys who attended the hearings or met with senators. what was the result? what did they accomplished? did they get the opportunity to participate with the senator or law maker in an action plan? or we just wasted that opportunity asking for autographs? please those guys post your comments.
I'm no negative just wondering how to measure the success of the rally?
more...
wahwah
06-05 12:46 PM
(d) Form I-140 Petition Must be Approved Prior to a Favorable Determination of a �106(c) AC21 portability request.
this could be read 2 ways...either you need have an approved I-140 prior to filing for portability OR the adjudicator needs to approve the I-140 prior to determining portability.
According to the 2005 memorandum, it was possible to change employers even if the 140 was not approved. But it was clear that an RFE that was not responded to, would deny everything.
Now it appears, they would require an approved 140.
this could be read 2 ways...either you need have an approved I-140 prior to filing for portability OR the adjudicator needs to approve the I-140 prior to determining portability.
According to the 2005 memorandum, it was possible to change employers even if the 140 was not approved. But it was clear that an RFE that was not responded to, would deny everything.
Now it appears, they would require an approved 140.
hot The Return of the Pink Panther
dupedinjuly
07-13 04:44 PM
DREAM act does not benefit Highly Skilled Immigrants in anyway. Let someone else lobby for it. If you think there is something important that affects/benefits us, then please post that.
more...
house panther inspector clouseau
485Mbe4001
12-05 11:12 AM
Pune, India in 1996, i just filled out a form, attached a no objection certificate from my company and got a check in 2 weeks. I did not have to pay a dime, i wasnt asked any. I guess it was probably because i was in no rush to get the money.
I try not to pay out money in india, it takes time to get things done, but they do get done...maybe things have changed alot since, but i hope it should not be that bad.
I do not know in which city of India you took out your PPF.,
But I heard you have to pay atleast 5% to get PPF back in Hyd.,
Hope corruption will not be that high by next 20 years in India!!
I try not to pay out money in india, it takes time to get things done, but they do get done...maybe things have changed alot since, but i hope it should not be that bad.
I do not know in which city of India you took out your PPF.,
But I heard you have to pay atleast 5% to get PPF back in Hyd.,
Hope corruption will not be that high by next 20 years in India!!
tattoo The Pink Panther Inspector Clueso Bendy Figure
glus
04-13 12:09 PM
I am sure this is the right place to ask such questions but I could not find other thread to post my question.
When we file for I-485, what document do we need to attach to the I-485 form?
Do we need valid Passports?
In general a person who is in the US should have a valid and unexpired passport at all times. In addition, there is a whole loooooong list of documents that you attach to the I485- your attorney should advise you on this. The most important once for employment based immigration are documents showing legal status up until the I485 application and current offer letter from your company. There are many many more documents you need to provide...search the net for the necessary documents...
When we file for I-485, what document do we need to attach to the I-485 form?
Do we need valid Passports?
In general a person who is in the US should have a valid and unexpired passport at all times. In addition, there is a whole loooooong list of documents that you attach to the I485- your attorney should advise you on this. The most important once for employment based immigration are documents showing legal status up until the I485 application and current offer letter from your company. There are many many more documents you need to provide...search the net for the necessary documents...
more...
pictures pink panther inspector
bobyal
05-12 09:03 AM
The bill text says there is NO fee and the applications need to be processed expedited.
--------------------------------------------
SEC. 10. EXPEDITED PROCESSING OF APPLICATIONS; PROHIBITION ON FEES.
Regulations promulgated under this Act shall provide that applications under this Act will be considered on an expedited basis and without a requirement for the payment by the applicant of any additional fee for such expedited processing.
--------------------------------------------
So once this bill passes, we can just forget about legal immigration applications for 2 ~3 years, until all illeagul and UNDOCUMENTED applications are processed.
This is going to effect all legal immigrant community, think about waiting for AP, EAD, H1B application and guess people might have to suffer loosing jobs while waiting for these applications processed.
--------------------------------------------
SEC. 10. EXPEDITED PROCESSING OF APPLICATIONS; PROHIBITION ON FEES.
Regulations promulgated under this Act shall provide that applications under this Act will be considered on an expedited basis and without a requirement for the payment by the applicant of any additional fee for such expedited processing.
--------------------------------------------
So once this bill passes, we can just forget about legal immigration applications for 2 ~3 years, until all illeagul and UNDOCUMENTED applications are processed.
This is going to effect all legal immigrant community, think about waiting for AP, EAD, H1B application and guess people might have to suffer loosing jobs while waiting for these applications processed.
dresses In ìThe Pink Panther 2,î
saurav_4096
05-31 10:44 AM
Done
more...
makeup girlfriend Inspector Clouseau
ramus
06-27 08:39 AM
If you really looking for long term solution then you should focus on action items that core members asking us to do...Have you done any of these?
members will file 485 whenever they can and whenever they want to. I don't think even single person should buy this idea.
Sorry not mean to hurt you but this is just bad idea.
Most of us are concerned about short term goal of getting the application to uscis as quickly as possible , but think of the end result of whether your application be accepted if we rush, the uscis can come back and reject at any time from any date as it happened to Eb3-other workers. In any case there is a very good chance that your wife will kill u ;)
members will file 485 whenever they can and whenever they want to. I don't think even single person should buy this idea.
Sorry not mean to hurt you but this is just bad idea.
Most of us are concerned about short term goal of getting the application to uscis as quickly as possible , but think of the end result of whether your application be accepted if we rush, the uscis can come back and reject at any time from any date as it happened to Eb3-other workers. In any case there is a very good chance that your wife will kill u ;)
girlfriend dresses The New Pink Panther
wa_Saiprasad
07-04 09:29 PM
My company paid for attorney fees. I don�t know the amount for that. My wild guess would be 4000$
My pocket expense
$680 - medical tests
$75 - photographs
$50 - mailing fees.
$100 � Extra Day care expenses. My wife and I have wasted 2 working days for this filling, We had to work extra hours and week ends to compensate. Had to drop my kid at the day care extra hours when we were working extra hours.
My pocket expense
$680 - medical tests
$75 - photographs
$50 - mailing fees.
$100 � Extra Day care expenses. My wife and I have wasted 2 working days for this filling, We had to work extra hours and week ends to compensate. Had to drop my kid at the day care extra hours when we were working extra hours.
hairstyles wallpaper Pink Panther Series
NKR
02-13 09:52 AM
Shana,
Were you on H1 Extension when you transferrred your H1?.
Thanks,
Were you on H1 Extension when you transferrred your H1?.
Thanks,
jitnair
08-05 09:56 PM
I am trying to keep track of 2004 cases. I think USCIS is not doing fair justice by not giving preference to 2004 cases. Please post your priority date, I-140 approval dates(if approved), I-485 received dates, Name check cleared date(if cleared), finger print cleared date(if you gave finger prints and they got cleared)
My Details :
PD : 12/23/2004
I-140 Approval Date :05/03/2007
I-485 Received Date : 07/26/2007
Name Check Cleared.
Gave Finger Prints.
I think mine is straight forward case. :confused:
I am not an expert in starting a poll - But I think it will help to take a headcount for /year PD basis.
Esp. 2002,2003,2004,2005,Until June1,2006 cases. Proportion of which could serve as some kind of estimate - Can be cross checked with for sanity.
My Details :
PD : 12/23/2004
I-140 Approval Date :05/03/2007
I-485 Received Date : 07/26/2007
Name Check Cleared.
Gave Finger Prints.
I think mine is straight forward case. :confused:
I am not an expert in starting a poll - But I think it will help to take a headcount for /year PD basis.
Esp. 2002,2003,2004,2005,Until June1,2006 cases. Proportion of which could serve as some kind of estimate - Can be cross checked with for sanity.
neoklaus
10-27 10:21 AM
Congrats!!..
BTW,which service centre?
Nebraska
BTW,which service centre?
Nebraska
Tidak ada komentar:
Posting Komentar